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Million Dollar Chaser

Futures · Started Jan 2008

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
0.0%
Max Drawdown
100.0%
Trades
1722
Win Trades
46.2%
Profit Factor
1
Win Months
3.5%

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
200814.223.22.42.3-49.520.2-41.0-120.7-307.7405.260.2-5.174.5
2009-119.0-497.3-56.7-30.3-9.4-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-2.8-27.0-61.8-372.4
2010-160.7-24.428.3-287.3-0.0-0.6-0.8-11.3-4.0-0.00.0-0.0
20110.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20120.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20130.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20140.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1
2015-0.2-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1
2016-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.10.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began1/26/2008
Suggested Minimum Capital$10,000
Age229 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades1722
# Profitable795
% Profitable46.2%
Avg trade duration1.6 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown100.0%
drawdown periodSept 23, 2008 - Jan 08, 2010
Annual Return (Compounded)0.0%
Avg win$934
Avg loss$765

Ratios

W:L ratio1.05
Sharpe Ratio0.67
Sortino Ratio1.09
Calmar Ratio-0.14

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.05
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life467.4%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-748.5%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)0.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)8.1%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity—
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated9.4%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$765
Avg Win$934
# Winners795
Sum Trade PL (losers)$709,193
Sum Trade PL (winners)$742,668
Num Months Winners5
# Losers927
% Winners46.2%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table8

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)97.87
Avg Position Time (hrs)1.63
Avg Trade Length0.10
Last Trade Ago6047

Regression

Alpha0
Beta-0.58
Treynor Index0

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.07
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.10
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.04
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-27.43
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.24
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats8.09
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats18.27
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.37
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.05
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.04

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.61
SD1.03
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.59
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.59
df64
t1.38
p0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.44
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.26
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.43
Sortino ratio1.78
Upside Potential Ratio2.78
Upside part of mean0.96
Downside part of mean-0.35
Upside SD0.98
Downside SD0.34
N nonnegative terms19
N negative terms46
N of observations65
Mean of predictor0.10
Mean of criterion0.61
SD of predictor0.24
SD of criterion1.03
Covariance-0.02
r-0.09
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.40
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.65
Mean Square Error1.07
DF error63
t(b)-0.74
p(b)0.77
t(a)1.46
p(a)0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.47
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.67
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.55
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.54
Jensen alpha (a)0.65
Mean0.26
SD0.79
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.33
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.33
df64
t0.77
p0.22
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.51
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.17
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.52
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.17
Sortino ratio0.55
Upside Potential Ratio1.47
Upside part of mean0.70
Downside part of mean-0.44
Upside SD0.62
Downside SD0.47
N nonnegative terms19
N negative terms46
N of observations65
Mean of predictor0.08
Mean of criterion0.26
SD of predictor0.24
SD of criterion0.79
Covariance-0.00
r-0.00
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.26
Mean Square Error0.63
DF error63
t(b)-0.04
p(b)0.51
t(a)0.77
p(a)0.22
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.83
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.80
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.95
Treynor index (mean / b)-17.86
Jensen alpha (a)0.26
VaR(95%)0.30
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.36
VaR(95%)0.08
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.18
Mean0.48
SD0.73
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.66
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.66
df1864
t1.55
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.51
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.18
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.51
Sortino ratio1.24
Upside Potential Ratio5.36
Upside part of mean2.09
Downside part of mean-1.61
Upside SD0.61
Downside SD0.39
N nonnegative terms431
N negative terms1434
N of observations1865
Mean of predictor0.11
Mean of criterion0.48
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion0.73
Covariance-0.00
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)2.00
Mean Square Error0.53
DF error1863
t(b)-0.45
p(b)0.51
t(a)1.56
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.10
Treynor index (mean / b)-17.07
Jensen alpha (a)0.49
Mean0.26
SD0.65
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.40
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.40
df1864
t0.94
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.44
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.24
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.44
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.24
Sortino ratio0.61
Upside Potential Ratio4.57
Upside part of mean1.96
Downside part of mean-1.69
Upside SD0.49
Downside SD0.43
N nonnegative terms431
N negative terms1434
N of observations1865
Mean of predictor0.07
Mean of criterion0.26
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion0.65
Covariance-0.00
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.26
Mean Square Error0.42
DF error1863
t(b)-0.59
p(b)0.51
t(a)0.95
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.81
Treynor index (mean / b)-7.92
Jensen alpha (a)0.26
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean0.00
SD0.09
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.02
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.02
df171
t0.01
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.75
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.79
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.75
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.79
Sortino ratio0.02
Upside Potential Ratio2.20
Upside part of mean0.14
Downside part of mean-0.13
Upside SD0.06
Downside SD0.06
N nonnegative terms83
N negative terms89
N of observations172
Mean of predictor0.10
Mean of criterion0.00
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion0.09
Covariance0.00
r0.15
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.05
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.00
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error170
t(b)1.92
p(b)0.43
t(a)-0.03
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.24
Treynor index (mean / b)0.03
Jensen alpha (a)-0.00
Mean-0.00
SD0.09
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.03
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.03
df171
t-0.02
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.80
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.74
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.80
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.75
Sortino ratio-0.04
Upside Potential Ratio2.12
Upside part of mean0.13
Downside part of mean-0.14
Upside SD0.06
Downside SD0.06
N nonnegative terms83
N negative terms89
N of observations172
Mean of predictor0.06
Mean of criterion-0.00
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion0.09
Covariance0.00
r0.15
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.05
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.01
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error170
t(b)1.92
p(b)0.43
t(a)-0.05
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.00
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.24
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.05
Jensen alpha (a)-0.01
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations65
Minimum0.42
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum2.92
Mean of quarter 10.89
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.33
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low12
Percentage of outliers low0.18
Mean of outliers low0.85
Number of outliers high14
Percentage of outliers high0.22
Mean of outliers high1.37
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.11
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.18
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations1865
Minimum0.69
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum2.10
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low353
Percentage of outliers low0.19
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high459
Percentage of outliers high0.25
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.46
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations172
Minimum0.96
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.04
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.01
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high5
Percentage of outliers high0.03
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations4
Minimum0.06
Quartile 10.21
Median0.41
Quartile 30.58
Maximum0.65
Mean of quarter 10.06
Mean of quarter 20.26
Mean of quarter 30.56
Mean of quarter 40.65
Inter Quartile Range0.37
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations18
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.06
Median0.10
Quartile 30.21
Maximum0.78
Mean of quarter 10.04
Mean of quarter 20.09
Mean of quarter 30.13
Mean of quarter 40.46
Inter Quartile Range0.15
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high0.73
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.15
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.48
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.62
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.26
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.60
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.75
Number of observations6
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.00
Maximum0.05
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.00
Mean of quarter 40.02
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high0.05
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)472
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.8%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.62
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.31
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.48
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.48
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.87
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.62
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.31
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.40
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.67
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal4.53
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.01
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.01
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.17
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.33
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.77

Trading record

Placed 607 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
@KC N0short10Apr 20, 2010Apr 28, 2010($10,205)
@KC K0short10Apr 12, 2010Apr 20, 2010$15,482
QCL K0short20Apr 12, 2010Apr 12, 2010($3,760)
@EU M0long10Apr 12, 2010Apr 12, 2010($455)
QCL K0long20Apr 12, 2010Apr 12, 2010($4,160)
@S K0short30Apr 8, 2010Apr 9, 2010($3,615)
QCL K0long20Apr 8, 2010Apr 8, 2010($3,960)
QCL K0long20Apr 8, 2010Apr 8, 2010($160)
QCL K0short20Apr 8, 2010Apr 8, 2010($2,360)
QCL K0short20Apr 8, 2010Apr 8, 2010($1,560)
@S K0long30Apr 8, 2010Apr 8, 2010($5,865)
@S K0short30Apr 8, 2010Apr 8, 2010($4,740)
@S K0long30Apr 8, 2010Apr 8, 2010($3,990)
@S K0short5Apr 8, 2010Apr 8, 2010($290)
@AD M0long20Apr 6, 2010Apr 8, 2010$3,440
QHG K0short15Apr 7, 2010Apr 7, 2010($3,870)
QHG J0short15Apr 7, 2010Apr 7, 2010($620)
@S K0short30Apr 6, 2010Apr 6, 2010($2,490)
QCL K0short20Apr 6, 2010Apr 6, 2010($2,960)
@S K0long30Apr 6, 2010Apr 6, 2010($3,740)
QCL K0long20Apr 6, 2010Apr 6, 2010($3,160)
@S K0short60Apr 6, 2010Apr 6, 2010($4,230)
@S K0long30Apr 6, 2010Apr 6, 2010$510
@S K0short30Apr 6, 2010Apr 6, 2010($2,115)
@S K0long30Apr 6, 2010Apr 6, 2010($740)
@S K0short10Apr 6, 2010Apr 6, 2010($1,455)
@EU M0long10Apr 5, 2010Apr 6, 2010($19,455)
@EU M0short10Apr 5, 2010Apr 5, 2010($2,455)
@EU M0long10Apr 5, 2010Apr 5, 2010($3,705)
@JY M0long4Mar 26, 2010Mar 26, 2010$1,318

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.