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Featured Strategy MT3 Algotrading Trades-Own-Strategy Certified Trades-Own-Strategy Certification Hypothetical

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These are hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Learn more
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Trades-Own-Strategy Certification

This system has earned Trades-Own-Strategy (TOS) Certification. This means that the manager of this system trades his own strategy in a real-life, funded brokerage account.

Trades-Own-Strategy (TOS) Certification Details
Certification process started 01/11/2024
Most recent certification approved 2/2/24 10:45 ET
Trades at broker Interactive Brokers (Stocks, Options, Futures)
Scaling percentage used 100%
# trading signals issued by system since certification 124
# trading signals executed in manager's Interactive Brokers (Stocks, Options, Futures) account 124
Percent signals followed since 01/11/2024 100%
This information was last updated 11/21/24 15:35 ET

Warning: System trading results are still hypothetical.

Even though the system developer is currently trading his own system in a real-life brokerage account, the trading results presented on this Web site must still be regarded as purely hypothetical results. This is because (among other reasons) the system developer may not have traded all signals, particularly those that occurred before 01/11/2024, and the system developer's results may not match the system results presented here. In addition, not all subscribers have received the same trades or prices as the system manager has. For these reasons, and others, it is extremely important you remember the following:

About the results you see on this Web site

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

You may be interested to learn more technical details about how Collective2 calculates the hypothetical results you see on this web site.

Index Futures Trading
(145096079)

Created by: BlackBoulderTrading BlackBoulderTrading
Started: 10/2023
Futures
Last trade: 3 days ago
Trading style: Futures Trend-following Short Term

Subscriptions not available

No subscriptions are currently available for this strategy because the strategy manager has capped the maximum number of subscribers.

Subscription terms. Subscriptions to this system cost $75.00 per month.

C2Star

C2Star is a certification program for trading strategies. In order to become "C2Star Certified," a strategy must apply tight risk controls, and must exhibit excellent performance characteristics, including low drawdowns.

You can read more about C2Star certification requirements here.

Note that: all trading strategies are risky, and C2Star Certification does not imply that a strategy is low risk.

Trading Category: Futures
Trend-following
Category: Equity

Trend-following

Buys when price goes up, and sells when price goes down, expecting price movements to continue. There are a number of different techniques and time-frames used, including moving averages and channel breakouts. Traders do not aim to forecast specific price levels; they simply jump on a trend and ride it. Typically, trend-following analysis is backward looking; that is, it attempts to recognize and profit from already-established trends.
Short Term
Category: Equity

Short Term

Makes short-term trades or bases analysis on short-term market movements.
74.5%
Annual Return (Compounded)

Rate of Return Calculations

Overview

To comply with NFA regulations, we display Cumulative Rate of Return for strategies with a track record of less than one year. For strategies with longer track records, we display Annualized (Compounded) Rate of Return.

How Annualized (Compounded) Rate of Return is calculated

= ((Ending_equity / Starting_equity) ^ (1 / age_in_years)) - 1

Remember that, following NFA requirements, strategy subscription costs and estimated commissions are included in marked-to-market equity calculations.

All results are hypothetical.

(21.4%)
Max Drawdown
71
Num Trades
57.7%
Win Trades
2.3 : 1
Profit Factor
71.4%
Win Months
Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes system fee and Typical Broker commissions and fees)
 JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2023                                                               +0.6%+22.8%+10.1%+35.9%
2024+11.4%+7.9%(1.4%)(10.3%)+17.4%+15.1%(10.9%)+0.5%+6.4%(1.8%)+3.2%      +38.6%

Model Account Details

A trading strategy on Collective2. Follow it in your broker account, or use a free simulated trading account.

Advanced users may want to use this information to adjust their AutoTrade scaling, or merely to understand the magnitudes of the nearby chart.

System developer has asked us to delay this information by 72 hours.

Trading Record

This strategy has placed 189 trades in real-life brokerage accounts. To see live brokerage data, select Show AutoTrade Data, and click on a Live AutoTrade Indicator symbol.

Show AutoTrade data Hide AutoTrade data
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Long
Short
Both
Win
Loss
Both
Opened Date/TimeSymbolDescriptionSideQuantAvg PriceClosed Date/TimeAvg PriceDrawdownP/L
11/21/24 9:08 @MNQZ4 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 LONG 1 20867.68 11/21 9:43 20675.04 2.49%
Trade id #150140725
Max drawdown($478)
Time11/21/24 9:40
Quant open1
Worst price20628.20
Drawdown as % of equity-2.49%
 ($386)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
11/11/24 18:19 @MNQZ4 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 SHORT 1 21210.00 11/15 10:22 20602.86 0.65%
Trade id #150060757
Max drawdown($117)
Time11/13/24 0:00
Quant open1
Worst price21268.80
Drawdown as % of equity-0.65%
 $1,213
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
11/11/24 8:58 @MNQZ4 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 LONG 2 21300.78 11/11 9:40 21257.59 1.34%
Trade id #150053279
Max drawdown($243)
Time11/11/24 9:39
Quant open2
Worst price21240.00
Drawdown as % of equity-1.34%
 ($175)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.88
9/20/24 9:24 @MNQZ4 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 LONG 2 20178.66 10/31 9:52 20247.26 2.28%
Trade id #149465845
Max drawdown($424)
Time10/1/24 0:00
Quant open1
Worst price19818.00
Drawdown as % of equity-2.28%
 $272
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.88
9/12/24 15:48 @MNQU4 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 LONG 1 19436.27 9/20 9:25 19801.97 1.57%
Trade id #149377588
Max drawdown($274)
Time9/16/24 0:00
Quant open1
Worst price19299.00
Drawdown as % of equity-1.57%
 $730
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
8/15/24 15:50 @MESU4 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 2 5579.91 8/29 15:58 5605.34 0.69%
Trade id #148931934
Max drawdown($118)
Time8/16/24 0:00
Quant open1
Worst price5536.50
Drawdown as % of equity-0.69%
 $252
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.88
8/12/24 10:24 @MESU4 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 1 5381.65 8/12 13:51 5361.61 0.7%
Trade id #148891307
Max drawdown($121)
Time8/12/24 11:25
Quant open1
Worst price5357.25
Drawdown as % of equity-0.70%
 ($101)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
8/7/24 15:12 @MNQU4 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 LONG 1 18104.00 8/8 9:51 18100.63 4.25%
Trade id #148860409
Max drawdown($718)
Time8/7/24 19:39
Quant open1
Worst price17745.00
Drawdown as % of equity-4.25%
 ($8)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
8/6/24 9:57 @MNQU4 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 LONG 1 18140.13 8/7 11:46 18368.88 1.34%
Trade id #148841052
Max drawdown($225)
Time8/6/24 18:00
Quant open1
Worst price18027.50
Drawdown as % of equity-1.34%
 $457
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
8/5/24 12:21 @MESU4 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 1 5265.66 8/5 12:56 5230.01 1.1%
Trade id #148833067
Max drawdown($188)
Time8/5/24 12:56
Quant open1
Worst price5228.00
Drawdown as % of equity-1.10%
 ($179)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
7/31/24 11:28 @MESU4 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 1 5563.03 8/1 10:38 5546.89 0.72%
Trade id #148784904
Max drawdown($123)
Time8/1/24 10:37
Quant open1
Worst price5538.25
Drawdown as % of equity-0.72%
 ($82)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
6/28/24 13:40 @MNQU4 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 LONG 1 20044.91 7/30 13:01 18808.94 14.12%
Trade id #148533277
Max drawdown($2,482)
Time7/30/24 13:01
Quant open1
Worst price18803.50
Drawdown as % of equity-14.12%
 ($2,473)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
7/25/24 10:17 @MESU4 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 1 5451.57 7/30 13:01 5439.62 0.52%
Trade id #148739530
Max drawdown($92)
Time7/25/24 16:03
Quant open1
Worst price5433.00
Drawdown as % of equity-0.52%
 ($61)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
7/19/24 12:58 @MESU4 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 1 5559.76 7/23 11:38 5625.57 0.48%
Trade id #148695699
Max drawdown($88)
Time7/19/24 13:23
Quant open1
Worst price5542.00
Drawdown as % of equity-0.48%
 $328
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
7/17/24 14:31 @MESU4 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 1 5650.00 7/17 16:02 5634.15 0.47%
Trade id #148673881
Max drawdown($91)
Time7/17/24 16:01
Quant open1
Worst price5631.75
Drawdown as % of equity-0.47%
 ($80)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
6/24/24 14:57 @MNQU4 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 LONG 2 19897.55 6/28 12:13 20075.51 1%
Trade id #148486944
Max drawdown($187)
Time6/25/24 0:00
Quant open1
Worst price19725.20
Drawdown as % of equity-1.00%
 $710
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.88
6/24/24 12:07 @MESU4 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 1 5548.18 6/28 12:13 5546.26 1%
Trade id #148485192
Max drawdown($189)
Time6/24/24 16:01
Quant open1
Worst price5510.25
Drawdown as % of equity-1.00%
 ($11)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
6/26/24 10:48 TQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO QQQ LONG 180 74.33 6/26 10:49 74.40 n/a $9
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $3.60
6/21/24 7:13 @MNQU4 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 SHORT 1 20025.64 6/24 14:52 19820.12 0.51%
Trade id #148466108
Max drawdown($94)
Time6/21/24 12:05
Quant open1
Worst price20073.00
Drawdown as % of equity-0.51%
 $410
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
6/24/24 14:51 TQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO QQQ LONG 100 72.81 6/24 14:52 72.74 0.04%
Trade id #148486864
Max drawdown($7)
Time6/24/24 14:52
Quant open100
Worst price72.74
Drawdown as % of equity-0.04%
 ($9)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $2.00
6/18/24 10:45 @MNQM4 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 SHORT 1 19885.02 6/21 7:15 19755.63 1.48%
Trade id #148438507
Max drawdown($267)
Time6/20/24 0:00
Quant open1
Worst price20019.00
Drawdown as % of equity-1.48%
 $258
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
6/6/24 21:56 @MESM4 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 3 5361.27 6/18 12:52 5449.16 2.28%
Trade id #148353458
Max drawdown($405)
Time6/11/24 0:00
Quant open3
Worst price5334.25
Drawdown as % of equity-2.28%
 $1,315
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $2.82
6/13/24 10:18 @MNQM4 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 SHORT 1 19579.22 6/17 13:48 19932.71 3.99%
Trade id #148398901
Max drawdown($728)
Time6/17/24 13:41
Quant open1
Worst price19943.50
Drawdown as % of equity-3.99%
 ($708)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
6/12/24 19:05 @ESM4 E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 1 5432.65 6/12 19:08 5434.06 0.49%
Trade id #148395227
Max drawdown($92)
Time6/12/24 19:08
Quant open1
Worst price5434.50
Drawdown as % of equity-0.49%
 ($78)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
5/31/24 13:05 @MESM4 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 3 5275.90 6/6 11:46 5361.16 n/a $1,276
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $2.82
5/31/24 9:54 @MNQM4 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 LONG 1 18550.00 5/31 10:33 18387.42 1.98%
Trade id #148299062
Max drawdown($334)
Time5/31/24 10:33
Quant open1
Worst price18383.00
Drawdown as % of equity-1.98%
 ($326)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
4/26/24 15:46 @MNQM4 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 LONG 2 18221.80 5/30 15:50 18691.52 6.59%
Trade id #148026198
Max drawdown($955)
Time5/2/24 0:00
Quant open1
Worst price17386.00
Drawdown as % of equity-6.59%
 $1,877
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.88
4/26/24 13:12 @MESM4 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 1 5142.00 4/26 14:59 5140.46 0.15%
Trade id #148024544
Max drawdown($22)
Time4/26/24 13:34
Quant open1
Worst price5146.50
Drawdown as % of equity-0.15%
 $7
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
4/24/24 12:24 @MNQM4 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 LONG 2 17620.74 4/25 8:41 17528.87 2.99%
Trade id #147999239
Max drawdown($457)
Time4/25/24 8:32
Quant open1
Worst price17392.00
Drawdown as % of equity-2.99%
 ($369)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.88
4/22/24 11:35 @MNQM4 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 LONG 1 17213.96 4/24 10:56 17690.13 0.08%
Trade id #147975794
Max drawdown($10)
Time4/22/24 11:45
Quant open1
Worst price17208.50
Drawdown as % of equity-0.08%
 $951
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
Next

Statistics

  • Strategy began
    10/9/2023
  • Suggested Minimum Cap
    $25,000
  • Strategy Age (days)
    412.03
  • Age
    14 months ago
  • What it trades
    Futures
  • # Trades
    71
  • # Profitable
    41
  • % Profitable
    57.70%
  • Avg trade duration
    5.1 days
  • Max peak-to-valley drawdown
    21.4%
  • drawdown period
    July 11, 2024 - Aug 06, 2024
  • Annual Return (Compounded)
    74.5%
  • Avg win
    $451.68
  • Avg loss
    $268.53
  • Model Account Values (Raw)
  • Cash
    $20,423
  • Margin Used
    $2,760
  • Buying Power
    $17,704
  • Ratios
  • W:L ratio
    2.30:1
  • Sharpe Ratio
    1.6
  • Sortino Ratio
    2.47
  • Calmar Ratio
    4.915
  • CORRELATION STATISTICS
  • Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)
    50.80%
  • Correlation to SP500
    0.39580
  • Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life
    37.68%
  • Return Statistics
  • Ann Return (w trading costs)
    74.5%
  • Slump
  • Current Slump as Pcnt Equity
    13.20%
  • Instruments
  • Percent Trades Futures
    0.98%
  • Slump
  • Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life
    0.33%
  • Return Statistics
  • Return Pcnt Since TOS Status
    40.280%
  • Instruments
  • Short Options - Percent Covered
    100.00%
  • Return Statistics
  • Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)
    0.745%
  • Instruments
  • Percent Trades Options
    n/a
  • Percent Trades Stocks
    0.02%
  • Percent Trades Forex
    n/a
  • Return Statistics
  • Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)
    88.3%
  • Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
  • Chance of 10% account loss
    40.00%
  • Chance of 20% account loss
    11.50%
  • Chance of 30% account loss
    0.50%
  • Chance of 40% account loss
    n/a
  • Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Automation
  • Percentage Signals Automated
    n/a
  • Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
  • Chance of 50% account loss
    n/a
  • Popularity
  • Popularity (Today)
    983
  • Popularity (Last 6 weeks)
    996
  • Trading Style
  • Any stock shorts? 0/1
    0
  • Popularity
  • C2 Score
    474
  • Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)
    990
  • Trades-Own-System Certification
  • Trades Own System?
    Yes
  • TOS percent
    100%
  • Win / Loss
  • Avg Loss
    $269
  • Avg Win
    $452
  • Sum Trade PL (losers)
    $8,056.000
  • Age
  • Num Months filled monthly returns table
    14
  • Win / Loss
  • Sum Trade PL (winners)
    $18,519.000
  • # Winners
    41
  • Num Months Winners
    10
  • Dividends
  • Dividends Received in Model Acct
    0
  • AUM
  • AUM (AutoTrader live capital)
    2708150
  • Win / Loss
  • # Losers
    30
  • % Winners
    57.8%
  • Frequency
  • Avg Position Time (mins)
    7297.92
  • Avg Position Time (hrs)
    121.63
  • Avg Trade Length
    5.1 days
  • Last Trade Ago
    3
  • Leverage
  • Daily leverage (average)
    3.06
  • Daily leverage (max)
    18.68
  • Regression
  • Alpha
    0.09
  • Beta
    0.97
  • Treynor Index
    0.17
  • Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)
  • MAE:Equity, average, all trades
    0.02
  • MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, all trades)
    -1.51
  • MAE:Equity, average, winning trades
    0.02
  • MAE:Equity, average, losing trades
    0.02
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades
    2.350
  • MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    -
  • MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    -
  • MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    0.01
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades
    0.532
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades
    -1.251
  • Hold-and-Hope Ratio
    0.445
  • Analysis based on MONTHLY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.63884
  • SD
    0.30297
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    2.10857
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    1.97350
  • df
    12.00000
  • t
    2.19467
  • p
    0.23241
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.01267
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    4.13190
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -0.06840
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    4.01539
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    4.50892
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    5.73438
  • Upside part of mean
    0.81246
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.17363
  • Upside SD
    0.31411
  • Downside SD
    0.14168
  • N nonnegative terms
    10.00000
  • N negative terms
    3.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    13.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.27735
  • Mean of criterion
    0.63884
  • SD of predictor
    0.09463
  • SD of criterion
    0.30297
  • Covariance
    0.02180
  • r
    0.76050
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    2.43474
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -0.03644
  • Mean Square Error
    0.04222
  • DF error
    11.00000
  • t(b)
    3.88435
  • p(b)
    0.00127
  • t(a)
    -0.13853
  • p(a)
    0.55384
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    1.05514
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    3.81434
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.61542
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.54253
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.26238
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -0.03644
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.58115
  • SD
    0.29747
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    1.95368
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    1.82853
  • df
    12.00000
  • t
    2.03345
  • p
    0.24688
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -0.11630
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    3.95484
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -0.19165
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    3.84871
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    3.82179
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    5.03336
  • Upside part of mean
    0.76539
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.18424
  • Upside SD
    0.29445
  • Downside SD
    0.15206
  • N nonnegative terms
    10.00000
  • N negative terms
    3.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    13.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.26952
  • Mean of criterion
    0.58115
  • SD of predictor
    0.09427
  • SD of criterion
    0.29747
  • Covariance
    0.02189
  • r
    0.78050
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    2.46297
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -0.08267
  • Mean Square Error
    0.03773
  • DF error
    11.00000
  • t(b)
    4.14076
  • p(b)
    0.00082
  • t(a)
    -0.33602
  • p(a)
    0.62841
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    1.15380
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    3.77214
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.62415
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.45881
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.23596
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -0.08267
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.08864
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.12032
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.01787
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.04573
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    13.00000
  • Minimum
    0.85895
  • Quartile 1
    1.00864
  • Median
    1.07979
  • Quartile 3
    1.11696
  • Maximum
    1.17048
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.95688
  • Mean of quarter 2
    1.03972
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.10872
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.14984
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.10831
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.70888
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.11464
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.53787
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    2.00000
  • Minimum
    0.01032
  • Quartile 1
    0.04300
  • Median
    0.07568
  • Quartile 3
    0.10837
  • Maximum
    0.14105
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.01032
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.14105
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.06537
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    0.86256
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    0.83871
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    5.94599
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    5.94599
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    6.97062
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.63728
  • SD
    0.29057
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    2.19320
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    2.18754
  • df
    291.00000
  • t
    2.31536
  • p
    0.01064
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.32627
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    4.05644
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    0.32250
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    4.05258
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    3.48712
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    10.84460
  • Upside part of mean
    1.98189
  • Downside part of mean
    -1.34461
  • Upside SD
    0.22868
  • Downside SD
    0.18275
  • N nonnegative terms
    154.00000
  • N negative terms
    138.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    292.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.26698
  • Mean of criterion
    0.63728
  • SD of predictor
    0.12521
  • SD of criterion
    0.29057
  • Covariance
    0.01470
  • r
    0.40400
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.93758
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.38700
  • Mean Square Error
    0.07090
  • DF error
    290.00000
  • t(b)
    7.52090
  • p(b)
    0.00000
  • t(a)
    1.52111
  • p(a)
    0.06466
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.69222
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    1.18295
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.11373
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.88767
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.67971
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.38697
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.59469
  • SD
    0.28935
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    2.05528
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    2.04998
  • df
    291.00000
  • t
    2.16976
  • p
    0.01542
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.18950
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    3.91759
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    0.18598
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    3.91399
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    3.19645
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    10.51490
  • Upside part of mean
    1.95625
  • Downside part of mean
    -1.36157
  • Upside SD
    0.22399
  • Downside SD
    0.18604
  • N nonnegative terms
    154.00000
  • N negative terms
    138.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    292.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.25900
  • Mean of criterion
    0.59469
  • SD of predictor
    0.12523
  • SD of criterion
    0.28935
  • Covariance
    0.01459
  • r
    0.40269
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.93039
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.35371
  • Mean Square Error
    0.07039
  • DF error
    290.00000
  • t(b)
    7.49192
  • p(b)
    0.00000
  • t(a)
    1.39610
  • p(a)
    0.08188
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.68597
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    1.17481
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.14494
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.85236
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.63918
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.35371
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.02677
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.03399
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.01132
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.02310
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    292.00000
  • Minimum
    0.93861
  • Quartile 1
    0.99363
  • Median
    1.00152
  • Quartile 3
    1.01185
  • Maximum
    1.10321
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.98139
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.99835
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00630
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.02411
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.01822
  • Number outliers low
    9.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.03082
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.95519
  • Number of outliers high
    7.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.02397
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.05245
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.26140
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.01793
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.02966
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.11465
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.01856
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.02774
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    18.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00003
  • Quartile 1
    0.00632
  • Median
    0.01743
  • Quartile 3
    0.07536
  • Maximum
    0.17575
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00350
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.01088
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.03949
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.11995
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.06904
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    -0.55825
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.13714
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.15224
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    -0.01447
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.15464
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.19703
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    0.89858
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    0.86375
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    4.91463
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    7.20069
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    25.41220
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, last 6 months only
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.19536
  • SD
    0.21684
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.90092
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.89571
  • df
    130.00000
  • t
    0.63705
  • p
    0.47211
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -1.87474
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    3.67320
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -1.87823
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    3.66965
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    1.25462
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    8.52539
  • Upside part of mean
    1.32750
  • Downside part of mean
    -1.13214
  • Upside SD
    0.15021
  • Downside SD
    0.15571
  • N nonnegative terms
    64.00000
  • N negative terms
    67.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    131.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.23133
  • Mean of criterion
    0.19536
  • SD of predictor
    0.13518
  • SD of criterion
    0.21684
  • Covariance
    0.00777
  • r
    0.26515
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.42533
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.09697
  • Mean Square Error
    0.04405
  • DF error
    129.00000
  • t(b)
    3.12338
  • p(b)
    0.33320
  • t(a)
    0.32485
  • p(a)
    0.48180
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.15590
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.69476
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.49362
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.68755
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.45931
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.09697
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.17186
  • SD
    0.21748
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.79022
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.78565
  • df
    130.00000
  • t
    0.55877
  • p
    0.47553
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -1.98471
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    3.56224
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -1.98780
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    3.55910
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    1.08676
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    8.32350
  • Upside part of mean
    1.31625
  • Downside part of mean
    -1.14439
  • Upside SD
    0.14847
  • Downside SD
    0.15814
  • N nonnegative terms
    64.00000
  • N negative terms
    67.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    131.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.22212
  • Mean of criterion
    0.17186
  • SD of predictor
    0.13537
  • SD of criterion
    0.21748
  • Covariance
    0.00783
  • r
    0.26591
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.42722
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.07696
  • Mean Square Error
    0.04429
  • DF error
    129.00000
  • t(b)
    3.13300
  • p(b)
    0.33273
  • t(a)
    0.25724
  • p(a)
    0.48559
  • VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)
    0.02700
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.15743
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.69702
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.51497
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.66889
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.40226
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.07696
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.02122
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.02668
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.01003
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.02033
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    131.00000
  • Minimum
    0.95035
  • Quartile 1
    0.99462
  • Median
    1.00000
  • Quartile 3
    1.00850
  • Maximum
    1.04062
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.98425
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.99881
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00436
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.01610
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.01388
  • Number outliers low
    4.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.03053
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.96059
  • Number of outliers high
    3.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.02290
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.03661
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.17028
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.01473
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.02251
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.21408
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.01731
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.02810
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    6.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00614
  • Quartile 1
    0.00826
  • Median
    0.02138
  • Quartile 3
    0.04835
  • Maximum
    0.17575
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00651
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.01238
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.03037
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.11505
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.04009
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    1.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.16667
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.17575
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative
    0.25%
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?
    -360735000
  • Max Equity Drawdown (num days)
    26
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    0.21008
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    0.22112
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    1.25811
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    1.92196
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    8.28646

Strategy Description

I use daily and intraday charts to decide when to trade typically ES and NQ futures. I may not make a trade every day but at times I may make make 1-6 trades per day. When you trade futures, you should be comfortable in losing significant portions of your position. They are risky. My goal is extreme capital appreciation using well timed market entries. I will use the strategies I have learned over more than 20 years of investing to attempt make this successful.
THE PRICE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL GO UP TO $75 PER MONTH ON 1/1/2024

Summary Statistics

Strategy began
2023-10-09
Suggested Minimum Capital
$25,000
# Trades
71
# Profitable
41
% Profitable
57.7%
Correlation S&P500
0.396
Sharpe Ratio
1.60
Sortino Ratio
2.47
Beta
0.97
Alpha
0.09
Leverage
3.06 Average
18.68 Maximum
Summary
Higher leverage = greater risk.

More information about leverage

Collective2 calculates the maximum leverage used by a strategy in each day. We then display the average of these measurements (i.e. the average daily maximum leverage) and the greatest of these measurements (maximum daily leverage).

Leverage is the ratio of total notional value controlled by a strategy divided by its Model Account equity. Generally higher leverage implies greater risk.

Example of calculation:
The Strategy buys 100 shares of stock at $12 per share.
The Model Account equity during that day is $5,000.
The leverage is: $1200 / $5,000 = 0.24

This is a useful measurement, but it should be considered in context. This measurement doesn't take into account important factors, such as when multiple positions are held that are inversely correlated. Nor does the measurement take into account the volatility of the instruments being held.

In addition, certain asset classes are inherently more leveraged than others. For example, futures contracts are highly leveraged. Forex positions are often even more leveraged than futures.

Latest Activity

#PERSONNAME#
subscribed on started simulation #SUBSCRIBEDDATE#

Most values on this page (including the Strategy Equity Chart, above) have been adjusted by estimated trading commissions and subscription costs.

Some advanced users find it useful to see "raw" Model Account values. These numbers do not include any commissions, fees, subscription costs, or dividend actions.

Strategy developers can "archive" strategies at any time. This means the strategy Model Account is reset to its initial level and the trade list cleared. However, all archived track records are permanently preserved for evaluation by potential subscribers.

About the results you see on this Web site

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.

In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program, which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

Material assumptions and methods used when calculating results

The following are material assumptions used when calculating any hypothetical monthly results that appear on our web site.

  • Profits are reinvested. We assume profits (when there are profits) are reinvested in the trading strategy.
  • Starting investment size. For any trading strategy on our site, hypothetical results are based on the assumption that you invested the starting amount shown on the strategy's performance chart. In some cases, nominal dollar amounts on the equity chart have been re-scaled downward to make current go-forward trading sizes more manageable. In these cases, it may not have been possible to trade the strategy historically at the equity levels shown on the chart, and a higher minimum capital was required in the past.
  • All fees are included. When calculating cumulative returns, we try to estimate and include all the fees a typical trader incurs when AutoTrading using AutoTrade technology. This includes the subscription cost of the strategy, plus any per-trade AutoTrade fees, plus estimated broker commissions if any.
  • "Max Drawdown" Calculation Method. We calculate the Max Drawdown statistic as follows. Our computer software looks at the equity chart of the system in question and finds the largest percentage amount that the equity chart ever declines from a local "peak" to a subsequent point in time (thus this is formally called "Maximum Peak to Valley Drawdown.") While this is useful information when evaluating trading systems, you should keep in mind that past performance does not guarantee future results. Therefore, future drawdowns may be larger than the historical maximum drawdowns you see here.

Trading is risky

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures and forex trading. Online trading of stocks and options is extremely risky. Assume you will lose money. Don't trade with money you cannot afford to lose.

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Suggested Minimum Capital

This is our estimate of the minimum amount of capital to follow a strategy, assuming you use the smallest reasonable AutoTrade Scaling % for the strategy.